Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study — The State of Luxury 2026.

01 Why it matters.

The annual Bain/Altagamma luxury market study is the single most cited industry report in luxury research — the reference point against which all other market analyses are measured. The 2025 edition captures the full picture of the luxury slowdown: personal luxury goods flat globally at approximately €1.44 trillion, a sharp deceleration from post-COVID growth. But it also captures the recovery signals: 3–5% growth forecast for 2026, driven by China recovery and US momentum.

For The Codes of Luxury, this report provides the market data foundation for every insight and case study that engages with market conditions — the K-shaped market analysis, the jewelry growth thesis, the portfolio recalibration story, and the broader argument that the luxury industry is in a structural reset rather than a cyclical trough.

02 Key takeaways.

1. 01 Personal luxury goods market was flat globally at approximately €1.44 trillion in 2025 — sharp deceleration from post-COVID growth.
2. 02 Bain/Altagamma forecast 3–5% growth for 2026, supported by China recovery and US momentum.
3. 03 Jewelry and watches remained the most resilient categories; fashion and leather goods faced the sharpest declines.
4. 04 HNWI consumers drove a disproportionate share of spending throughout the slowdown; aspirational consumers retracted.
5. 05 The industry is in a structural reset — not simply recovering from a cyclical dip — and the brands emerging strongest are those that repositioned toward quality and scarcity during the contraction.

03 Used in our research.

1. 01 InsightThe K-Shaped Luxury Market: Why Hermès Grows While Gucci Falls
2. 02 InsightJewelry Is the New Handbag: Why the Category Is Winning the Decade
3. 03 Case StudyVestiaire Collective: Making Resale Feel Like Luxury