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China Luxury Market — Year-on-Year Change, 2021–2025

Market data

China Luxury Market — Year-on-Year Change, 2021–2025.

Mainland China contracted again in 2025 — but at roughly a fifth of the 2024 rate, putting the deepest point of the cycle behind it.

Data as of 25 Jun 2026·last reviewed 11 Aug 2026

Read the analysisChina Is Back — But Not the SameRead the insight
CN

China luxury market — YoY change

% change, personal luxury goods, mainland China

2021 – 2025
40%20%0%−20%−40%40%202120222023202420252026?−4%↗ +15pp vs 2024 (±2)
2021: post-COVID rebounddomestic sales, RMB 471bn
2024: downturn low−18% to −20% YoY
2025: contraction eased−3% to −5% YoY

Bain publishes a mainland-China figure each year. 2021–2023 are single reported values; 2024 and 2025 are source ranges (2024: −18% to −20%, 2025: −3% to −5%) shown at the vertical bars, with dots at the mid-points. The +15pp swing from 2024 to 2025 carries a ±2 range. The dotted tail to 2026 is an open trend — the source gives no numeric 2026 figure.

Source: Bain & Company — annual mainland-China luxury reviews, 2021–2026 (incl. the January 2026 report on 2025 and the June 2026 spring update). · Solid line = reported years · Dotted segment = no numeric 2026 figure, shown as open trend only.

Reading the data

01 What's shown

Year-on-year change in mainland China's personal-luxury market across the full cycle, 2021–2025, with an open 2026.

02 What it shows

China ran hot then cold: +36% in 2021, then a −10% COVID year, a +12% rebound in 2023, the sharpest contraction of the cycle in 2024 (−19%), and a much shallower contraction in 2025 (−4%) — a +15pp swing, but still a second down year.

03 How to read it

  • Primary — none. Bain's mainland-China estimate is the only published series for this market; there is no primary source to check it against.
  • 2021–2023 are single reported Bain values; only 2024 and 2025 are source ranges, shown at the vertical bars with dots at the mid-points — so the midpoint caveat applies to those two years only.
  • The +15pp swing from 2024 (−19%) to 2025 (−4%) carries a ±2 range from the source ranges.
  • The dotted tail to 2026 is an open trend, not a forecast — the source gives no numeric 2026 figure.

04 Sources

Research & press
  • Bain & Company — annual mainland-China luxury reviews, 2021–2026.
  • Bain & Company / Fondazione Altagamma (June 2026) — spring update, Q1 2026 China commentary; no annual 2026 figure published.

05 Method

  • The midpoints and the +15pp swing are derived by us from Bain's published ranges, not reported figures.

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